Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Major Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
