From Reluctant Respect to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”